TNH selects the top 10 picks

By Brandon Lawrence

Former Content Editor

Published: Tuesday, April 24, 2012

Updated: Wednesday, February 13, 2013

I can tell you right now, with very few hints of sarcasm, that this year’s NFL draft is going to be filled with moves and picks you can’t, and won’t, expect.

I’m willing to say that this draft is one of the deepest in terms of both skill position players and quality late-round picks in recent memory, and I think every team has a very good chance at addressing nagging issues through rookies in 2012. But, as is the case every year, there are teams that need a lot more help than any player pickup come Thursday, Friday or Saturday can provide.

On Monday afternoon, ESPN NFL Insider Adam Schefter said via teleconference that this year’s draft will be one of the most unpredictable in terms of movement we’ve seen. So that being said, the purpose of this column is to ATTEMPT to break down Thursday’s top-10 draft choices, and to provide a few educated guesses for the latter portion of the first round.

The reason Schefter seems so sure this will be a wacky Thursday is because, according to his sources, teams that hold picks 3-16 have expressed at least some minor interest in moving down. But for sanity’s sake, I won’t predict trades in this mock. Here’s what I came up with for the 2012 NFL Draft first round:

1. Indianapolis Colts

Andrew Luck - QB, Stanford

If you can picture it, I’m taking a page out of the E-Trade baby’s book and putting on my shocked face. And to explain, Luck and Baylor’s Robert Griffin III are the two reasons I say “few hints of sarcasm.” Luck is one of the most highly-touted players coming out of college in the last 15 years, and will step into the starting role for Indy with little competition. He’s coming off his senior season, in which he completed 71 percent of his passes for 3,517 yards and 37 touchdowns. He’s an extremely cerebral passer that has it all: great accuracy and field vision, a quick release, and can move and throw well on the run. In fact, the Colts will be getting something from Luck that they haven’t had in decades: a quarterback who can move the ball with his feet. Luck added 230 yards and two touchdowns last season on the ground. Peyton Manning never did that.

2. Washington Redskins

Robert Griffin III - QB, Baylor

No one had a better offseason and combine than Baylor’s RGIII. The reigning Heisman Trophy winner one-upped Luck in his senior season, throwing for 4,293 yards and 37 touchdowns, completing 72 percent of his passes. And, to add a huge dimension to his game, Griffin tallied 699 yards and 10 touchdowns rushing in 2011. Griffin’s status rose in the offseason from a possible top-10 draft choice to vying for the right to be the Colts’ next starter. But when the Redskins moved up via trade to the second draft position, RGIII committed to them as well. He’ll work with Mike Shanahan on the playbook, and should figure to be a vast improvement over Rex Grossman and Jon Beck. The addition of wide receivers Pierre Garcon and Josh Morgan will help Griffin in the passing game, and the emergence of running back duo Roy Helu and Evan Royster gives the Skins a multi-dimensional offense. So the question will be: how will this defense (and team in general) hold up against the rest of the NFC East?

3. Minnesota Vikings

Matt Kalil - OT, USC

Kalil has immense talent on the offensive line, and if it weren’t for the fact that skill position players are so valuable in the NFL, I think Kalil would put up a fight for the top draft spot. I’ve heard a few rumors that the Vikings were looking into LSU defensive back Morris Claiborne, but when you think about value by position, the Vikings need Kalil. With Christian Ponder coming off his first season in the league and likely to be Minnesota’s future behind center, the Vikings would be smart to put Kalil in charge of keeping him protected. He was a slightly better pass blocker in college than a run blocker, which will have to change when Adrian Peterson comes back and gets the bulk of the work on offense. But overall, it should be an easy decision for the Vikings to want to keep Ponder as safe and healthy as possible.

4. Cleveland Browns

Trent Richardson - RB, Alabama

In my opinion, Cleveland had the worst offseason of any NFL team in 2012 up to this point, which was sealed when the Browns failed to move up to pick No. 2 for RGIII. So, now what? It seems they’re sticking with Colt McCoy – at least for the time being – and should build up the positions around him for now. Losing Peyton Hillis to Kansas City hurt, but Richardson would be a huge upgrade in the backfield. He has the initial burst of speed that Hillis didn’t have, and the bruising body and physicality that he did. Richardson is also great coming out of the backfield as a receiver, and will fit well into the West-Coast offense that Mike Holmgren is known for. He averaged 5.9 yards per carry in 2011, gaining 1,679 yards to go with 21 touchdowns.

Cleveland could also go with Texas A&M quarterback Ryan Tannehill, but why force the issue now? Tannehill won’t be an elite passer for at least several years – if at all – unlike Luck and Griffin. If the Browns stick it out for one more year with McCoy, they could be the top candidate for Matt Barkley in 2013.

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Morris Claiborne - CB, LSU

The Bucs did a solid job adding offensive talent (and breaking the bank) this offseason with the addition of Vincent Jackson. Now it’s time to look at the defensive side. Corner Aqib Talib – a potential top choice for the Patriots a few years back – could be in jail come the start of training camp, and Ronde Barber is, well, old. Claiborne stood out on a defense that was seen as NFL-caliber at LSU, and would be reunited with Ron Cooper, his secondary coach at LSU who was just hired as defensive backs coach in Tampa. Claiborne has a 6-foot-0 frame with spectacular hands and speed at the edge. The Bucs had an off year in 2011, and this will be a step in the right direction to get back to that coveted Tampa Bay defense fans were used to seeing.

6. St. Louis Rams

Justin Blackmon - WR, Oklahoma State

I put Blackmon in a category with Luck, Griffin and Richardson as the top athletes at their skill positions. A lot of mock drafts have Blackmon falling from the top eight, but I think St. Louis would be wise to grab him here. The loss of Brandon Lloyd (to New England) leaves a void for a downfield receiver, and the 6-foot-1, 211-pound Blackmon has all the intangibles to be a top receiver in the NFC West. Poor Sam Bradford was put in an awkward position with not much offensive talent in St. Louis when he was drafted a few years ago, and I think his numbers would immediately increase with a speedy, versatile pass catcher. Blackmon’s 18 receiving touchdowns in 2011 with Oklahoma State helped him into this year’s top-10, along with his reputation of being a physical receiver. Although Riley Reiff makes a lot of sense on the O-line for the Rams, having a solid #1 receiver is better.

7. Jacksonville Jaguars

Melvin Ingram - DE/OLB, South Carolina

Like the Browns, I think the Jaguars are another team that needs a lot of help, albeit in fewer places. The Blaine Gabbert experiment is still ongoing, with a Chad Henne-like twist added. So right now the Jaguars need a ton of help at wide receiver, but are forced to go with Michael Floyd too soon if and when Blackmon leaves the big board. I think the Jags will try like crazy to move up a spot or two to get him, but as I said earlier, no trade predictions here.

Off the top of your head, name the last noteworthy front-seven defensive player the Jaguars had. No? Well by adding Ingram to the mix, the Jags can focus more on the mid-rounds, where plenty of receiving talent can be picked up. Management should be able to sleep easy on Thursday night knowing a quality defensive player will likely be wearing a Jacksonville uniform come camp.

8. Miami Dolphins

Ryan Tannehill - QB, Texas A&M

Remember when I said Tannehill wouldn’t be an elite passer for at least a few years? The Dolphins don’t care. Right now I think they’ll count themselves lucky if Tannehill winds up in South Beach after the failure to pick up a (decent) signal caller in the offseason. No Peyton Manning. No Matt Flynn. No more Chad Henne. Just David Garrard – that guy who was cut for Blaine Gabbert.

I don’t mean to make a mockery out of Tannehill; truth is the biggest question regarding the 6-foot-4, 221-pound quarterback is his lack of experience. Tannehill played only 20 games behind center for the Aggies in his career. In his senior season, he completed 62 percent of his throws for 3,744 yards and 29 touchdowns – not too shabby. But his big-game potential fell after he threw three interceptions apiece in games against Oklahoma State, Oklahoma and Texas, and the fact that he had foot surgery forcing him to miss the college Senior Bowl doesn’t help his chances either. The good news is that in Miami, he’ll be able to see a sufficient amount of playing time alongside Garrard.

9. Carolina Panthers

Fletcher Cox - DE/DT, Mississippi State

It’s interesting to think that Cox began the offseason pre-combine as a late first-round pick, likely to the Patriots. But the 6-foot-4, 298-pound monster has dominated his offseason workouts, especially with his impressive 4.79-second 40-yard dash time. The defensive line seems to be a lacking area for the Panthers, who registered 31 sacks and 12 fumble recoveries in 2011, and gave up just shy of 4,000 passing yards and 28 passing touchdowns to opponents. I think Cox has the ability and the capacity to become a tremendous pass rusher in the NFL, and should be able to grow with a relatively young team.

10. Buffalo Bills

Riley Reiff - OT, Iowa

I debated with myself over this pick for a little while, but came to the conclusion that Reiff just pushes out cornerback Stephon Gilmore and wide receiver Michael Floyd for the last selection in the top-10. The Bills did a lot of work defensively this offseason, making the notable signing of Mario Williams a top priority. While I do think Gilmore would fit in well with the Buffalo defensive backs, protecting Ryan Fitzpatrick for the entirety of the season should be high on the Bills’ to-do list. Reiff stands out as a big lineman, listed at 6-foot-5 and 313 pounds, although multiple scouting reports say that his arms are too short for a player at the tackle position in the NFL. Either way, Reiff comes in as the consensus second-rated offensive lineman behind Kalil, and will have an impact wherever he goes in the draft – whether that is in Buffalo or somewhere else.

Check out the rest of my picks for the first round:

11) Kansas City Chiefs: ILB Luke Kuechly, Boston College

12) Seattle Seahawks: DE Quinton Coples, North Carolina

13) Arizona Cardinals: G David DeCastro, Stanford

14) Dallas Cowboys: S Mark Barron, Alabama

15) Philadelphia Eagles: DT Michael Brockers, LSU

16) New York Jets: DE/OLB Chandler Jones, Syracuse

17) Cincinnati Bengals: DE/OLB Courtney Upshaw, Alabama

18) San Diego Chargers: OT Cordy Glenn, Georgia

19) Chicago Bears: WR Michael Floyd, Notre Dame

20) Tennessee Titans: CB Stephon Gilmore, South Carolina

21) Cincinnati Bengals: CB Dre Kirkpatrick, Alabama